Crest Nicholson Holdings

Website: Crest Nicholson Holdings
Index: FTSE Small Cap
EPIC: CRST
Supersector: Personal and Household Goods
Sector: Household Goods and Home Construction
Subsector: Home Construction
Market Cap: £271.41M
Payout Frequency: Semi-Annual

Crest Nicholson Holdings Dividend Analysis and Summary

Dividend declaration and timetable

Final dividend: 1.8p per share (FY to 31 Oct 2025), subject to shareholder approval
Total FY25 dividend: 3.1p per share (interim 1.3p + proposed final 1.8p), up 40.9% YoY (FY24: 2.2p)
Ex-dividend date: 26/03/2026
Record date: 27/03/2026
Payment date: 24/04/2026
Cash cost of final dividend: ~£4.6m (company disclosure)

Dividend cover and affordability

Adjusted EPS: 7.8p; cover vs FY25 dividend (3.1p): ~2.5x
Statutory EPS: 0.9p; cover vs FY25 dividend: not covered (~0.3x)
Cash flow/debt: Net debt £38.2m (FY24: £8.5m); operating cash outflow £11.9m, assisted by inventory reduction and higher borrowings

Management guidance/context

FY26 guidance: adjusted PBT £32–40m; adjusted gross margin 15–16%; interest £10–12m; net debt £15–65m
Large near-term cash outflows expected on fire remediation: c.£95.9m within one year (including £19.1m BSF repayment)

Analyst view: sustainability and trajectory

Sustainability: The proposed final dividend is modest in cash terms (~£4.6m) and is covered by adjusted earnings, but not by statutory earnings or current operating cash flow. Heavy remediation cash needs and higher financing costs (RCF margin now 3.0%) tighten headroom. On current adjusted guidance, the FY26 dividend looks serviceable but remains finely balanced against competing cash demands.
Growth trajectory: FY25 DPS of 3.1p (+40.9% YoY) is a rebuild from a low base after prior cuts. Management targets margin improvement via “Project Elevate” and a shift to mid-premium product, which, if delivered, could support gradual dividend growth; however, execution risk and market softness argue for continued caution.
Support from financials/capital allocation: Inventory reduced and land creditors cut to £73.2m, signaling tighter balance-sheet discipline. That said, net debt increased, interest costs are rising, and substantial remediation outflows are front-loaded. Capital allocation priority appears to be balance-sheet resilience and remediation, with dividends kept small.

Structural or policy factors affecting future dividends

Going concern/covenants: The SBP downside indicates potential interest cover covenant breach from April 2026 unless amended; management is confident but not guaranteed. As a mitigation, the Group explicitly lists the removal of dividends after April 2026 as an option—an explicit policy risk to future payouts.
Financing: £250m RCF extended to October 2029 at a higher margin (3.0%); increases interest burden and reduces dividend headroom.
Restructuring: Closure of the Chiltern division and divisional consolidation should lower overheads over time, supporting margins and, indirectly, future dividend capacity if trading improves.
Land strategy: Ongoing land disposals/reconfiguration and selective acquisitions to support mid-premium focus; positive for longer-term returns but may introduce near-term earnings/cashflow variability.

Key risks/flags to dividend stability

Material uncertainty on going concern: Potential covenant breach (interest cover) in SBP scenario from April 2026; dividend suspension is an explicit mitigation.
Fire remediation: Provision £202.8m with ~£95.9m expected within a year; estimates remain sensitive to scope, inflation, and timing.
Legal/legacy issues: Settlement of a significant fire-damage claim reached post year-end, consistent with provisions; residual estimation risk remains on remedial works.
Cash generation: FY25 operating cash outflow and rising interest costs limit dividend flexibility until market conditions and internal margin actions drive stronger cash conversion.
Control/restatement history: Prior-year restatement and control weaknesses identified (now addressed); not directly a cash risk but a governance flag.

Dividends Used in Calculation:

Ex-Dividend Date	Payment Date	Type	Amount	Currency
27/03/2025	25/04/2025	Final	1.20p	GBX
18/09/2025	10/10/2025	Interim	1.30p	GBX

Total (Annual Dividends Per Share): 2.50p

Dividend Yield = Annual Dividends Per Share (2.50p) ÷ Share Price (104p) = 2.4%

Ex Dividend Date	Payment Date	Type	Amount	Currency
26/03/2026	24/04/2026	Final	1.8000p	GBX
18/09/2025	10/10/2025	Interim	1.30p	GBX
27/03/2025	25/04/2025	Final	1.20p	GBX
19/09/2024	11/10/2024	Interim	1.00p	GBX
21/03/2024	23/04/2024	Final	11.50p	GBX
21/09/2023	13/10/2023	Interim	5.50p	GBX
16/03/2023	05/04/2023	Final	11.50p	GBX
22/09/2022	13/10/2022	Interim	5.50p	GBX
17/03/2022	08/04/2022	Final	9.50p	GBX
23/09/2021	14/10/2021	Interim	4.10p	GBX
19/03/2020	09/04/2020	Final	21.80p	GBX
19/09/2019	04/10/2019	Interim	11.20p	GBX
21/03/2019	18/04/2019	Final	21.80p	GBX
20/09/2018	05/10/2018	Interim	11.20p	GBX
15/03/2018	06/04/2018	Final	21.80p	GBX
21/09/2017	06/10/2017	Interim	11.20p	GBX
16/03/2017	07/04/2017	Final	18.50p	GBX
22/09/2016	06/10/2016	Interim	9.10p	GBX
10/03/2016	08/04/2016	Final	13.30p	GBX
24/09/2015	08/10/2015	Interim	6.40p	GBX
12/03/2015	08/04/2015	Final	10.20p	GBX
24/09/2014	09/10/2014	Interim	4.10p	GBX
12/03/2014	09/04/2014	Final	6.50p	GBX

Year	Interim	Final	Currency	Total	Change
2024	1.000	1.200	GBX	2.200	-87.050
2023	5.500	11.500	GBX	17.000	0.000
2022	5.500	11.500	GBX	17.000	25.000
2021	4.100	9.500	GBX	13.600	-58.780
2019	11.200	21.800	GBX	33.000	0.000
2018	11.200	21.800	GBX	33.000	0.000
2017	11.200	21.800	GBX	33.000	19.560
2016	9.100	18.500	GBX	27.600	40.100
2015	6.400	13.300	GBX	19.700	37.760
2014	4.100	10.200	GBX	14.300	120.000
2013		6.500	GBX	6.500

Number of Shares:

Payment	Paid	Amount
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